Well, I voted, and it was really easy. Just needed some basic ID and some time to wait in the line I was, I admit, rather surprised to have encountered. Nobody tried to intimidate me or influence my vote. I went on just one of the several days that voting was possible. I didn’t have to register in advance. My vote was private. I saw it go into the machine and be counted.
And yet…
Holding a snap election in February in Ontario seems very much designed to ensure low voter turnout.
- Weather: February’s always kind of miserable, but this year the province has been hammered with record amounts of snow. Some people literally cannot get out of their homes to vote, because they need clear sidewalks, and those are hard to come by. It’s also tough to get campaign signs in snow-covered lawns, or volunteers willing to stay out very long knocking on doors.
- Condensed time frame: The election was announced one day, started the next day, and runs for only four weeks. It’s very little time to even let people know it’s happening, let alone any campaigns to gain steam and make an impression. No party started with a full slate of candidates! A lot of people won’t receive voter cards in time. (They can vote without it, but not everyone knows that. Or even realizes an election is happening.) Those who want to vote by mail are hard-pressed to get that completed by deadline.
- There’s a lot else going on. The US keeps talking about annexing our country, along with doing various appalling things daily. The Federal Liberal party is having a leadership race, the winner of which will be Prime Minister. Shortly afterward, a general federal election is expected. Lots of competition for Ontario politicians trying to let people even know there is a provincial election, let alone who all the leaders, candidates, and positions are.
There’s nothing illegal about all this; but it kind of feels like it should be? Because this is not truly a free and fair election. Especially if you consider:
- The governing Conservatives have been found to have inappropriate used taxpayer money to advertise themselves, before the election, and party money to advertise the Premier’s trip to Washington, which is also not allowed. The penalty? Bupkus! More votes for them, even though they’ve cheated!
- The Conservatives have told their candidates to not attend any local debates, something they have followed, with few exceptions.
The Conservatives have not bothered to release a platform.(Today they did release one…)- Conservative leader Doug Ford has mostly avoided the media.
So the governing party, the one with by far and away the most funds, is doing its level best to ensure that voters are uninformed about anything.
They clearly hope that hardly any people will vote, since low voter turnout tends to favor incumbents and conservative parties. And polls have consistently shown them to be in majority territory.
Do the Conservatives deserve re-election?
I would argue no—and not only because of their “keep the voters ignorant” campaign style. Fortunately, I don’t have to personally write up all the reasons why, as many others have. One of my favourite examples is Please: Anyone but Doug Ford by Justin Ling. A few excerpts:
His years in office have been defined by shortages — a lack of homes, doctors, teachers, jobs, skilled workers, subways, buses, and bike lanes. Worse yet, his plan for a third term is ambitious only in its plan to build a massive new white elephant.
Let’s start with housing, inarguably the priority for any incoming government. But, somehow, Ford remains indifferent. Ontario is, in the full swing of a housing crisis, breaking ground on fewer units of new housing today than it was in 2012. It’s a stunning failure.
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There are few problems in Ontario which don’t flow out of this acute housing shortage. Tent encampments, rising crime, the opioid crisis, sluggish growth, a stagnant culture, and declining productivity: All things that could be ameliorated by cheaper, abundant housing.
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Ford is addicted to giving private companies public money, often for no benefit to the province.
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He has had nearly seven years to fix the province, and he hasn’t. What is he proposing for the next four years?
Ford’s healthcare plan is absolutely anemic, little more than a vague hand-wave at the crisis. If he has actual new plans to boost housing construction, he’s certainly been holding out on us. Does he have a real plan to improve education, reduce homelessness, hire more doctors, provide care for people struggling with addiction, or get real economic growth started again? No.
What Doug Ford has is a big dumb tunnel.
The opposition problem
If not Doug’s PCs, then who? And therein lies the problem. Both Liberals and NDP have new leaders that aren’t well known. Neither has managed to bust out a fantastic campaign to make them the clear alternative. The Green Party has a appealing leader and great platform, but are strong only in a limited number of ridings. The voter who wants “not Conservative” has to do the frustrating dance of whom exactly to pick instead.
I have voted. I will say it: I voted NDP. I live in a riding with an NDP incumbent who is excellent. I was happy to support her. I was less happy to support some aspects of the NDP platform. Really, you’re going to make the 407 toll-free to “reduce congestion” (which it won’t). Really, that’s your first announcement? And that whole grocery rebate thing? That sounds… complicated.
But as whole, it’s still a better platform than what the PCs have on offer. The party leader, Marit Stiles, is more appealing than Ford. And their Instagram ad today is one of the funniest political ads I’ve seen in some time (here’s hoping they also post on YouTube or somewhere more accessible than Instagram).
And they know the mission: Focus on the ridings they hold, and the ones they might conceivably take away from the Conservatives. From the Conservatives. Not so much from the Liberals or the Greens.
The Liberals haven’t played too much of a factor in my personal consideration, with the Greens having earned my “heart” vote, and the NDP clearly being the smart vote. But being someone who frankly doesn’t really understand political strategy, it’s been interesting periodically dipping into the writings of Evan Scrimshaw, who lives and breathes this stuff.
This one, pointing out that with Conservatives sitting at 45% support in polling (it’s since dipped a bit, not enough), there is no “rearranging of the deck chairs” possible to prevent them winning a majority, was particularly interesting: Ontario: Progressives’ Absurd Focus.
The idea that if you could magically optimize the Liberal and NDP votes, somehow Ford would be defeated is nonsensical. Not every vote who is voting for one or the other is a vote for the other. Not every Liberal trusts the NDP on fiscal policy or some of their more out there social values ideas (remember safety zones around drag bars?), while plenty of New Democrats are union, working class, blue collar voters who oscillate between the NDP to advocate for more health spending and the Conservatives because they’re mad at progressives, wokeness, and the general fact that the world isn’t how it was in 1995. Only 62% of Liberals and New Democrats think the OLP and ONDP should merge into one party, per a Friday Research Co poll.
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The unfortunate truth is that if you were to do head to head polling, Ford would easily beat Crombie’s Liberals, Stiles’ NDP, or some merged entity. He is what Ontario wants. The reason he’s what Ontario wants is in large part because the Opposition have not been good enough.
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If there was some option of a merger or a deal, the Greens would also be a big impediment to it working. Green voters aren’t idiots who think the Greens can win, they’re about building slowly and adding to the conversation through presence and generally not making the compromises that the NDP and especially the Liberals make. It’s a party that is on some level about being anti-Liberal and anti-NDP more than it is about the environment or ecology or whatever else. It’s a statement of principles, and about one’s self.
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What both parties of the left have failed to do is create a coherent narrative for why they need to be elected. The real problem for Ontario progressives isn’t how the opposition splits their votes, it’s the fact that 45% of Ontario is about to vote for Ford, and any person or any organization focused on anything other than driving that down isn’t helping.
Vote anyway
The weather forecast has improved this week. The NDP still looks perky. The Greens are are encouraging you to not feel bad about voting for some other party if you don’t live in one of their favored ridings. The Liberals… Well, I’m not too sure what’s going on there, but they do have some good candidates.
You can vote any day between now and Thursday. Go here: https://voterinformationservice.elections.on.ca/en/election/search?mode=postalCode, enter your postal code, and it will tell you where and what form of ID to bring.
It’s not really a fair election, but it helps nothing to sit it out. Happy voting.